Sometimes, you can just see the trends starting to form, and it’s always important to get out in front of them. Let’s look ahead to Week 6 and see what stands out in the DFS world.
MORE: Fantasy Alarm DFS Playbook Pro | Play FanDuel!
Daily fantasy baseball strategy (Hitters)
PLAYER AT PEAK SALARY TO AVOID:
Gregory Polanco PIT ($3.4K FanDuel/$4.9K DraftKings)
Polanco is having a nice season with a .297 BA, four HRs, three SBs and an .897 OPS. But as solid as he’s been, Polanco is very hit-or-miss on a game-to-game basis. If you examined his past 10 games heading into this week, you would see three single-digit point games and three goose eggs. At that salary, you need a better floor-of-point production. His matchups this week also don’t help his cause. Alfredo Simon stymied the Pirates last time he faced them in April, and Polanco struck out three times. The weekend outlook doesn’t get much brighter, as the Pirates head into Chicago to take on the red-hot Cubs. Polanco will face Jason Hammel, Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester. There are players with similar skill sets as Polanco at far better salaries this week.
PLAYERS PRICED BELOW VALUE:
Kevin Gausman BAL ($7.7K FanDuel/$8.2K DraftKings)
Since his return from the DL, Gausman has started to finally look like the pitcher the Orioles have been waiting for the past two years. In all fairness, the organization is largely to blame for constantly bouncing Gausman between the rotation and the bullpen, the big club, and the minors. Now that his position in the rotation is secure, he looks relaxed and poised for a big season. Although he’s winless in his three starts, he has a 1.42 ERA, 14K/3BB (19 IP), and a microscopic 0.69 WHIP. Best of all, hitters aren’t making steady contact off him, as indicated by the .152 BAA mark. This week he’s on the road against a weak Twins offense and the beatable Phil Hughes. Start No. 2 is at home versus the enigmatic Tigers and rookie Michael Fulmer. Gausman has a legitimate shot at two wins this week, and his salary is very cost effective.
CONUNDRUM OF THE WEEK:
Trevor Story COL ($4.5K FanDuel/$5.3K DraftKings)
I know, I know…Story is playing in Colorado this week – against the Diamondbacks, against whom he has five of his 11 home runs. His OPS against the D-backs is a stunning 1.239, but all good things come to an end. Baseball has a funny way of righting itself, and although Story has plenty of appeal, when you consider six of his past 10 games he’s put up single-digit points and is prone to the swing-and-miss, it should give you pause. This weekend the Mets roll into town with Jacob deGrom, Steven Matz and Matt Harvey. To value Story at a higher salary than Carlos Correa is a poor decision, even factoring in his home field advantage. He’s too risky against top-level pitching this weekend, and his price may handicap the rest of your budget.
MORE: Fantasy Alarm DFS Playbook Pro | Play FanDuel!
Daily fantasy baseball advice
The Cubs are on fire right now! Baseball is a game of streaks, and it would be wise to purchase plenty of shares in this team both on the mound and at the plate. First, they host the dreadful Padres, then they host their scuffling division rivals, the Pirates. The Cubs have scored the most runs in baseball as of Monday (184) and have the highest team OPS (.809), as well. Ironically, their offense has done more damage on the road than at Wrigley Field. That trend will correct itself as the weather starts to heat up. The Pirates’ and Padres’ team ERA’s are above 4.00 on the year, making them fresh meat for this Cubs squad. This could be shaping up to be quite a month for the Northsiders, and fantasy owners that can utilize them in their lineups. They’re worth the premium you’ll pay.
Daily fantasy baseball lineup picks
Finally, here’s a look at Tuesday’s Relative Position Value per Dollar Lineup (RPVPD) for DraftKings. RPVPD is the Fantasy Black Book’s DFS player evaluation tool, which is only available to Fantasy Alarm subscribers. For more optimal lineups, DFS tools like RPVPD, and season-long rankings and advice, head to FantasyAlarm.com for the DFS Playbook and much more!
Joe Pisapia (@JoePisapia17) is the seven-time best-selling author of the Fantasy Black Book Series for baseball and football. He hosts Fantasy Sports Tonight on Sirius/XM Fantasy Sports Radio and the Dear Mr. Fantasy Podcast.
